Iran shake-up may reveal inner workings

The month of August was the mid-term point in Mahmood Ahmadinejad's presidency. As if to mark that point, he sacked two of his key ministers.

The decision was not taken lightly. Both affected ministries - the Oil Ministry and the Industry Ministry - play strategic roles in Iran's economic life. The first is responsible for bringing in the bulk of the government income to the treasury and the second includes several thousand enterprises expropriated at the time of the revolution. The latter employs a large part of the workforce.

The two dismissals were soon followed by sacking of the Central Bank chairman which, when counted with the previous firings, made the seventh such dismissal to hit the government since Ahmadinejad had taken over as president.

In most countries, changes at the ministerial level cause little shock to the bureaucratic structure of the state or the normal functioning of the government. Not so in Iran, where such changes are frequently accompanied by large-scale personnel changes at the top- and mid-echelons.

They also often wreak havoc with efficiency and morale at the technical-bureaucratic levels, resulting from the factionalized and fragmented nature of the Islamic Republic where one faction's gain is always the other's loss.

In case of the two dismissed ministers, it was common knowledge that they were both compromise candidates and not the president's initial choices. Both were long-time technocrats with allegiance to their peers and the bureaucracy at large.

Ahmadinejad's Achille's heel

"In a few years from now, Ahmadinejad's legacy will be judged by his success or failure to deliver on his economic promises," said an Iranian political scientist to ISN Security Watch.

"Two years ago, he was able to beat his rivals on the strength of his promises for improving the lives of the poor and the lower middle classes." The academic, who insisted on his anonymity added, "Ahmadinejad's overall strategy for Iran, including his goal to reintroduce a new revolutionary agenda for the county will hinge on this very point."

So far, the government's performance in this regard, however, has been far from satisfactory. The inflation rate is peaking to more than